A Shifting Middle East Chess Board

As I write this, no one knows if the Syrian government will respect the cease-fire that U.N. and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan brokered. Damascus promised to cease fighting by 6 a.m. tomorrow (Thursday) morning, although it reserves the right to “defend itself and civilians from terrorist attacks.” In all likelihood, there will at best be a lull in the fighting and then various violations used as a pretext to return to the full out assaults of previous months. The regime in Damascus already broke many previous similar pledges. It also missed the Tuesday deadline, under this latest Annan plan, for withdrawing troops from city centers.

Besides its ruthless thugs and loyal elements within its military, serious questions about the nature of the Syrian opposition groups help keep Assad’s regime from collapsing. That, and continuing Iranian, Russian and Chinese support, of course.

The crisis in Syria has already shifted the Middle East chessboard of loyalties, interests and political machinations. Before protests erupted in Syria, Iran and Hezbollah were increasingly managing to transcend their Shiite sectarian identity base to appeal to non-Shiites in the region. They did so primarily via the language and coin of “resistance” to Israel and Western “imperialism and oppression.” Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy also greatly improved its relations with Syria and Iran, amongst others. We might more appropriately term the Turks’ policy as “zero problems with neighbors except for Israel,” however, since recurring spats with the Jewish state also helped power the Turks’ popular ascendancy in the region. Meanwhile, the Saudis, Qataris and other Gulf Arab states appeared on the defensive in the region, spending sleepless nights worrying about Shiite ascendancy in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere. Russian and Chinese influence in the Middle East simultaneously appeared to be on the rise, with more and more robust investments, business deals and political engagement coming from both states. Read More

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